- Euro takes further hit as President Putin rejects currency for gas exports
- British pound attracts bullish interest against euro and dollar
- A record 120.5 million securitised derivatives were traded on Spectrum Markets last month
Spectrum Markets, the pan-European trading venue for securitised derivatives, has published its SERIX sentiment data for European retail investors for March (see below for more information on the methodology), noting bearish sentiment towards the euro, particularly against the British pound and Japanese yen.
“The war in Ukraine has understandably unsettled retail investors, who shortened their euro positions in significant numbers last month. President Putin’s announcement that Russia would not accept payment in euro for gas exports on March 24th further increased pressure on the European currency, alongside an increasingly high inflation rate. The SERIX on most of the currency pairs linked to the euro went well below the neutral value of 100, hitting 92 against the yen and a record low of 76 against the pound,” explains Michael Hall, Head of Distribution at Spectrum Markets.
Eurozone inflation has been stoked in the last few weeks by higher energy and food prices in particular, which have risen dramatically since the invasion of Ukraine. The bloc already recorded a record of 5.9% in February, well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, with most economists anticipating further rises to come. Uncertainty over the likely direction and strength of the ECB’s policy response remains a key factor in investor thinking on the currency in particular.
In contrast, retail investor sentiment appeared to favour the British pound, also against the US dollar, where the SERIX maintained the upward momentum seen this year and hit 103. This could be seen as a vote of confidence for The Bank of England’s focus on tackling inflation, anticipating further targeted tightening of monetary policy. Alongside this, Britain’s economically-important service sector is less affected by rising energy prices.
During March 2022, a record 120.5 million securitised derivatives were traded on Spectrum, with 35.6% of trades taking place outside of traditional hours (i.e. between 17:30 and 9:00 CET). 86.1% of the traded derivatives were on indices, 3.6% on currency pairs, 8.5% on commodities, and 1.8% on equities, with the top three traded underlying markets being DAX 40 (27.1%), S&P 500 (18.9%) and OMX 30 (14.9%).
Looking at the SERIX data for the top three underlying markets, the DAX 40 maintained its value at 100 and OMX 30 dropped one point to record a value of 99. Meanwhile the S&P 500 saw a similar decline, from 99 to 98, remaining in the bearish zone.
Calculating SERIX data
The Spectrum European Retail Investor Index (SERIX), uses the exchange’s pan-European trading data to shed light on investor sentiment towards current development in financial markets.
The index is calculated on a monthly basis by analysing retail investor trades placed and subtracting the proportion of bearish trades from the proportion of bullish trades, to give a single figure (rebased at 100) that indicates the strength and direction of sentiment:
SERIX = (% bullish trades – % bearish trades) + 100
Trades where long instruments are bought and trades where short instruments are sold are both considered bullish trades, while trades where long instruments are sold and trades where short instruments are bought are considered bearish trades. Trades that are matched by retail clients are disregarded. (For a detailed methodology and examples, please visit this lin
