Home Finance Retail investors turn bullish on France in election month

Retail investors turn bullish on France in election month

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  • SERIX-Sentiment on CAC40 turns bullish for first time since 2020
  • Trading volume linked to French index doubled after first round of voting
  • 102.8m securitised derivatives were traded on Spectrum Markets in April

Spectrum Markets, the pan-European trading venue for securitised derivatives, has published its SERIX sentiment data for European retail investors for April (see below for more information on the methodology), revealing continuedpositive momentum on the CAC40,with the index turning bullish against the backdrop of the Frenchpresidential election.

The SERIX value for CAC 40 reached 101 in April, a level not seen since December 2020, and capping a steadytrend of increasingly bullish sentiment starting in February last year when the SERIX hit an all-time low of 85 for the French index. 

April saw a high volume of tradingtoo,as France went to the polls, with more than double the monthly average trades placed onApril 11th, when the first round of voting took place. 

“The presidential elections in France, which many saw as a potential inflection point for the wider European Union,naturally attracted a lot of interest from retail investors on the continent. Especially when the first round of voting resulted in what looked like a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, this really caught investors’ attention,” explains Michael Hall, Head of Distribution at Spectrum Markets.  

“Longer term, retail investor sentiment towards the French equity index, CAC40, reflected in the SERIX chart,has been more or less steadily improving since February 2021, and April’s data suggests investors feel broadly optimistic about the outlook for France under Macron going forwards,” Hall adds.

During April 2022, 102.8million securitised derivatives were traded on Spectrum, with 39.5% of trades taking place outside of traditional hours (i.e. between 17:30 and 9:00 CET), the highest monthly figure seen during the last two years. 

87.4% of the traded derivatives were on indices, 7.1% on commodities, 4.4% on currency pairs, and 1.1% on equities, with the top three traded underlying markets being S&P 500 (24.3%),  DAX 40 (23.4%)and NASDAQ 100 (17.8%). 

Looking at the SERIX data for the top three underlying markets, the DAX 40 dropped by one point to 99 shifting to the bearish zone. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 increased from 98 to 103 and NASDAQ 100 saw a similar increase, from 99 to 103,turning bullish.

Graph

Calculating SERIX data

The Spectrum European Retail Investor Index (SERIX), uses the exchange’s pan-European trading data to shed light on investor sentiment towards current development in financial markets. 

The index is calculated on a monthly basis by analysing retail investor trades placed and subtracting the proportion of bearish trades from the proportion of bullish trades, to give a single figure (rebased at 100) that indicates the strength and direction of sentiment:

SERIX = (% bullish trades – % bearish trades) + 100

Trades where long instruments are bought and trades where short instruments are sold are both considered bullish trades, while trades where long instruments are sold and trades where short instruments are bought are considered bearish trades. Trades that are matched by retail clients are disregarded. (For a detailed methodology and examples, please visit this link). 

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